Lady Gaga and Justin Bieber are both closing in on 1 billion all-time YouTube views, according to TubeMogul. If both artists continue at their current rate, Gaga will beat Bieber to the punch by reaching 1 billion views around October 20. Bieber is expected to reach the milestone around November 1.

Another video analytics group called Visible Measures reported that Gaga reached one billion across all video sites several months ago. The number is more inclusive in many ways. “Our analysis includes the original music videos, copies of those originals, and derivatives (spoofs, people dancing to the video, concerts, etc.) from over 200 video sites, not just YouTube,” says Visibile Measures’ Matt Fiorentino.

By that measure, Gaga’s “Bad Romance” alone has more than 630 million views already. However, TubeMogul claims that no artist has yet achieved 1 billion views solely on YouTube. It’s clear at this point that the milestone will go to either Gaga or Bieber, because the third-place competitor (Michael Jackson) is hanging back at 600 million views.

Both Gaga and Bieber host some videos on Vevo, a record label-backed music video site that hosts much of its content on YouTube. TubeMogul’s numbers include Vevo videos viewed on YouTube but not videos hosted at Vevo’s own website.

Bieber may win in the end even if he doesn’t beat Gaga to 1 billion. Gaga has had more views over time, but Bieber is currently averaging 3.98 million views daily while Gaga is pulling off just 2.04 million. You’d think that’s because Bieber’s newest video “U Smile” premiered last week, while Gaga’s most recent major music video “Alejandro” is a few months old, but TubeMogul says Bieber has maintained a significant lead in daily views since February.

Bieber’s “Baby” is the most watched YouTube video of all time at about 350 million views, and the kid is no slouch on Twitter, either.

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