Gold / Silver Miners Index (XAU) Chart
The rally in precious metals has been impressive.
Gold is up over 9 percent in 2020 and over 35 percent in the past 18 months. Silver is up nearly 4 percent in 2020 and over 25 percent in the past 18 months.
And when precious metals prices are strong, it provides a strong tailwind to gold and silver mining stocks.
Today’s chart highlights the rally on the Gold & Silver Mining Index (XAU)… and why it’s nearing an inflection point.
XAU is testing a price level where four support/resistance lines come into play at (1), near the 112 level.
The outcome at (1) will send an important message to the mining sector as to whether the rally will pause and pullback, or continue higher. Stay tuned!
Wag the Dog – The new COMEX and Shanghai gold contracts
Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com
This month, in a move which went largely unnoticed, the US and Chinese gold markets moved one step closer to lockstep, when the CME group, home of the COMEX gold derivatives market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), the world’s largest physical gold exchange, simultaneously and jointly launched a series of gold futures products in what they pitched as cross-market cooperation.
On the US side, CME has launched two cash-settled ‘Shanghai Gold futures‘, based on the SGE’s daily Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price, one denominated in US dollars and the other denominated in offshore Chinese renminbi (CNH). Both of these contracts are listed on the COMEX. On the Chinese side, the SGE has launched a T + N (margin) 100 gram contract denominated in renmimbi (RMB) that’s based on the CME’s COMEX Gold Futures Asia Spot Price. The SGE calls this the NYAuTN contract.
For those unfamiliar with the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price, this is a twice daily gold spot fixing auction operated by the SGE which was launched in April 2016. The auctions runs on SGE business days at 10:15 am and 2:15 pm Beijing Time and are for physically-delivered 1 kg lots of 99.99% purity gold or higher, quoted in RMB per gram. You can read all about the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price in the BullionStar article here “Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price – New Kid on the Block”.
For those unfamiliar with the COMEX Gold Futures Asia Spot Price, which is probably nearly everyone, this is merely a CME Marker Price conjured up by CME based on the COMEX GC contract, the infamous 100 oz gold futures contract that dominates price discovery in the international gold market. The Gold Futures Asia Marker Price is calculated as a volume weighted average price of trades in the nearby active month of the GC contract taken during a snapshot 5 minute period between 3:25 pm and 3:30 pm China time (GMT + 8 hours). This then gives the Gold Futures Asia Marker dataset which the SGE contracts use after converting from US dollars to renminbi and after converting to the NYAuTN contract size of 100 grams.
Contract Specs – CME Shanghai Gold futures
The CME’s renminbi Shanghai Gold futures contract, quoted in offshore Chinese renminbi (CNH) per gram, is a cash-settled future representing a contract size of 1000 grams (1 kilo of gold), and which settles using the PM (afternoon) Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price sourced from Bloomberg or Reuters price feeds. The CME commodity code for this USD Shanghai gold futures SGC.
The CME’s US dollar Shanghai Gold futures contract is quoted in US dollars per troy ounce, has a contract unit of 32.15 troy ozs (i.e. 1 kilo), and cash-settles using the same SGE afternoon Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price while converting the benchmark price from renminbi to US dollars using a 3 pm Beijing USDCNH exchange rate sourced from the ‘EBS CNH Benchmark‘ exchange rate published by NEX Data. As the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price is quoted in grams, and CME’s USD version is quoted in troy ounces, the USD Shanghai gold futures contract also applies a conversion from grams to ozs using a conversion factor of 32.15 troy ounces per kilo. The CME commodity code for this USD Shanghai gold futures SGU………
Beyond the sales pitch, what will be the effect of this trading and arbitraging on the global gold price? With the SGE now tying itself up into COMEX in not one but in two ways, how will this affect gold price discovery in Shanghai, and will it be another case of the bullion bank foxes guarding the physical gold hen house out of Shanghai?
The SGE NYAuTN contracts are tied directly to the COMEX GC 100 oz gold future, which has been subject to multiple price manipulation allegations, including a DoJ criminal charge against JP Morgan traders of “massive, multiyear scheme to manipulate the market for precious metals futures contracts and defraud market participants”. And not to forget the infamous LBMA bullion banks “Spoofing Futures and Banging Fixes: Same Banks, Same Trading Desks“.
The SGE’s NYAuTN contract uses the COMEX Gold Futures Asia Marker Price which is calculated between 3.25 pm and 3.30 pm China time based off the COMEX GC contract, so these COMEX prices could conceivably be pushed around by those with the means and the motivation.
Likewise, movements in the CME Shanghai gold futures derivatives could try to wag the dog of SGE’s afternoon benchmark auction before and during the auction (which kicks off at 2.15pm Beijing time). The opening price of the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price auction is established using a calculation of a reference price submitted by the Fixing members and Reference Price members of the Shanghai auction.
If the CME Shanghai gold futures prices happen to start moving suddenly just before the auction time, will this influence the reference price submissions of the Shanghai auction participants, aiming to influence the auction opening price?
In short, could there be spillover effects of COMEX GC price movements into NYAuTN and other SGE contracts, and spillover of price movements of the two CME Shanghai gold futures contracts into the SGE benchmark? Only time will tell, but some would say that the SGE associating with the COMEX is not the best way to develop the world’s largest physical gold market or indeed any physical gold market.
Central Bank Issues Stunning Warning: “If The Entire System Collapses, Gold Will Be Needed To Start Over”
It’s not just “tinfoil blogs” who (for the past 11 years) have been warning that a monetary reset is inevitable and the only viable fallback option once trust and faith in fiat is lost, is a gold standard (something which even Mark Carney hinted at recently): central banks are joining the doom parade now too.
An article published by the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), or Dutch Central Bank, has shocked many with its claim that “if the system collapses, the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again. Gold bolsters confidence in the stability of the central bank’s balance sheet and creates a sense of security.”
While gloomy predictions of a monetary reset are hardly new, they have traditionally been relegated to the fringe of mainstream financial thought – after all, as Mario Draghi stated on several occasions in recent years, the mere contemplation of a “doomsday scenario” is enough to create the self-fulfilling prophecy which materializes it. As such, it is stunning to see a mainstream financial institution open up about the superior value of limited supply, non-fiat, sound money assets. It is also hypocritical given the diametrically opposed Keynesian practices regularly engaged in by central banks and official institutions worldwide: after all, just a few months back, the IMF published a paper bashing Germany’s adoption of the gold standard in the 1870s as the catalyst for instability in the global monetary system.
Fast forward to today, when the Dutch Central Bank is admitting not only did gold not destabilize the monetary system, but it will be its only savior when everything crashes.
The article, titled “DNB’s Gold Stock” states:
“A bar of gold retains its value, even in times of crisis. This makes it the opposite of “shares, bonds and other securities” all of which have inherent risk and prices can go down.
According to the IMF’s latest data, the DNB holds 615 tons (15,000 bars) of gold mainly in Amsterdam, with other stores in the U.K. and North America; the value of this gold reserve is over €6 billion ($6.62 billion). Calling gold the “trust anchor,” the article details briefly why the hard asset is so important to wealth building and the global economy, claiming: “Gold is… the trust anchor for the financial system. If the whole system collapses, the gold stock provides a collateral to start over. Gold gives confidence in the power of the central bank’s balance sheet.”
Why this sudden admission of what goldbugs have been saying for years? Perhaps it has to do with the fact that on October 7, the bank announced it would soon be moving a large part of its gold reserves to “the new DNB Cash Center at military premises in Zeist.”
Almost as if the Netherlands is preparing for the grand reset, and is moving its most valuable asset to a “military” installation just for that purpose.
As bitcoin.com tongue-in-cheek points out, “DNB is no stranger to playing along with the Keynesian, inflationary games of the global monetary system. A system which, according to some, is now more a Ponzi scheme based on force and blind faith than sound economic principle. That notwithstanding, the centralized financial powers of the world know the real score, and that’s why hard assets like gold are hoarded and locked down while everyday, individual residents of these geopolitical jurisdictions are encouraged to spend and spend, going further into debt to prop up ultimately unsound national economies.”
It is hardly a coincidence that in its preparation for monetary doomsday, the Dutsch Central Bank is also set to begin cracking down on crypto exchanges and wallets, stating that “firms offering services for the exchange between cryptos and regular money, and crypto wallet providers must register with De Nederlandsche Bank.”
While the push for greater KYC/AML transparency is a growing global trend, and is hardly surprising in a world in which trillions in assets reside in “tax-evading” offshore jurisdiction, the remarkable aspect of this latest crackdown against crypto – which many see as a modern, more efficient form of “gold” – is the fact that invasive regulations and restrictions by central banks can be seen as yet another means of stockpiling precious assets. This time, not gold bars, but bitcoin and crypto.
As for the timing of the “great monetary reset”, which other central banks have already quietly hinted at themselves amid massive repatriation of physical gold from the New York Fed to various European central banks such as Germany and Austria, we are confident that the trust-keepers of the current establishment – such as other central banks and the IMF – will be kind enough to provide ample advance notice to the citizens of the “developed” world to exchange their fiat into hard assets. Or, then again, perhaps not.
Markets for Intensifying Deflation
Well, you can own the hopelessly indebted promises of sovereign nations in a deflationary environment. But that is conventional thinking and it is for the herds.
The real money would be made in the gold mining sector. Not necessarily in gold (it’s a store of value, not a casino play) and not in silver (it’s got more industrial and cyclical characteristics than gold)… but in gold mining because in a deflation, while gold itself may not do much its miners would leverage its positive standing in relation to oil, materials and other cost-driving items. In short, profitability would continue for the quality miners even if the product’s price stalls. That would be as represented by the Macrocosm we’ve long made such a big deal about.
Gold, Silver and Platinum surge ahead with impressive double digit YTD returns
Submitted by BullionStar.com
The recent trading action of gold, silver and platinum on international markets has been nothing short of spectacular, with the spot prices of all three precious metals up strongly in recent months, and in the case of gold and silver, prices registering multi-year highs. Investors and savers in physical precious metals bars and coins have likewise seen increased values in their holdings.
In US dollar terms, gold is now up 20.73% year-to-date, silver is up 25.91%, and not to be left behind, the spot platinum price in US dollars is now up 22.25% year-to-date. All three metals are all still contenders for centre spot on the precious metals 2019 podium.
Although there is more to the global gold market than the US dollar, precious metals prices in US dollar terms are important to watch since the metals trade add are priced internationally in US dollars in the large trading venues around the which most influence precious metals price discovery.
Spot Gold in US dollars
For nearly 6 years until June this year, the US dollar gold price had tried, but failed to break out above $1350, trading mostly in the $1100 to $1300 range with sporadic attempts to move towards $1350. This all changed however, with a gold price move beginning at the start of June. By the third week of June, the US dollar gold price had risen up through the $1400 level, establishing a new trading level above $1400 and building a base above $1400 throughout July. The first week of August then saw the US dollar gold price rapidly through the $1500 level, ending the month at $1520.
Gold Price in US dollars, year-to-date 2019. Click chart to enlarge. Source: BullionStar Charts
Overall, gold added 16.71% in the 3 months from June to August, mainly due to a 8.21% move up in June, and a 6.43% rise in August. At the time of writing in early September, gold has now risen 18.86% since the end of May and 20.67% year-to-date. Over 1 year, gold is up 29.06%. At its current level of $1547.69 (at the time of writing), gold in US dollars is near a six and a half year high.
Spot Silver on a Streak
The spot silver price in US dollars is now trading at $19.50 per troy ounce and approaching a 3-year high. It has not been this strong since mid September 2016.
Like, gold, silver’s recent strong ascent in US dollar price terms began at the end of May when the precious metal was trading at $14.5 per ounce. This was followed by a breach of the $15 level on the upside during June, then silver accelerated taking out $16 in mid-July, $17 in early August and $18 by end of August. At the time of writing, silver has now also comfortably taken out the $19 level and is halfway to $20.
Silver Price in US dollars, year-to-date 2019. Click chart to enlarge. Source: BullionStar Charts
The 3 month period from June to August saw silver add 27% buoyed by a very strong August in which USD silver rose 12%, from $16.48 to $18.38. From 31 May to the time of writing, silver has now risen by 34%.
One year ago, silver was trading at $14.5 per ounce, the same as the end of May this year. The one year performance for USD silver is therefore also 34%. Year-to-date, spot silver has added 25.68%, and in the last month (from 03 August to 03 September) silver is up an impressive 20.04%.
Platinum – Later to the Party
The spot price of platinum in US dollars is now near a one and a half year high at $961 per ounce, having not been at this level since mid-March 2018. On a year-to-date basis, platinum is now up 22.25%, so is neck and neck with the year-to-date performance of gold and silver. All of the up move in platinum has happened since the end of May, with the spot price up 21.51% since 31 May.
After rising nearly 9% over June and July combined, the white metal rose another 8% in August, and then pulled off a noticeable surge starting in the last few trading days of August and into September. In percentage terms, since 27 August, platinum is up a staggering 12.47%.
As the spot price of platinum one year ago is coincidentally the same as the price at the beginning of 2019, the one year price and year-to-date price rises of platinum are currently identical, i.e. 22.25%.
While the US gold price led the price surges across the three metals since early June, this awakened the prices of both silver and platinum, with silver’s price accelerating, month to month over June to August, e.g. the silver price rose 6% in June, 8% in July, 10% in August, and another 6% to 03 September, in platinum’s late August – early September rally.
The Gold / Silver Ratio
The relative price movements of the three precious metals over the last three months also explain the changing dynamics of the Gold / Silver ratio and Gold / Platinum ratio over that time. The strong showing for gold in June brought the gold / silver ratio from 89 at the end of May up to 93 in early July. Silver’s outperformance in July then brought the ratio back down to the 86 -89 range, and more recently down further towards 79 as silver continued to streak ahead.
Gold’s June lead also pushed the Gold / Platinum ratio up to the 1.75 range in June, and then to 1.80 in August, but platinum’s recent surge has brought this ratio back down near 1.60.
Unchartered Territory – New All-Time Highs
While US dollars is the trading currency of precious metals on international markets, it is not the base currency / home currency for billions of individuals around the world whose wealth is denominated in currencies other than the US dollar, and whose income is generated in currencies other than the US dollar.
Focusing solely on the US dollar gold price will also miss the critical moves where the gold prices in almost all other major and minor currencies are continuing to make new all-time highs. This is something we drew readers attention in mid-June in the article “Gold Price Breakout in Multiple Currencies” and which has since continued apace around the world. The list of currencies is long, but to name just a few, the gold price in pounds sterling, euros, Australian dollars, Indian rupees, Singapore dollars, and Canadian dollars are all continuing to make new all-time highs.
At the time of writing, spot gold in British pounds sterling has made a new all-time high (ATM) of £1278 per troy ounce, and is closing in on £1300. Gold in euro is trading at a new all-time high of €1408, having surged through €1400. In Australian dollars, gold is at an all-time high of AUD 2286. In Singapore dollars, gold has just made a new all-time high of SGD 2150. The same is true of Canadian dollars where gold has made a new high of CAD 2061, and in Swedish Krona where gold has just registered a new all time high of SEK 15187 per troy ounce.
In India, gold has made a new ATM of INR 111,500 at the time of writing. Add to the list, Indonesia and Brazil which again saw all time highs for the gold price in their local currencies within the last trading day. Gold in Japanese yen is at a 29 year high of ¥ 163,800. In Swiss francs, gold is at a 7 year high of CHF 1526, just shy of its all time high.
Notable in its absence in all of the above is the gold price denominated in US dollars. That, for now, is the biggest question, when and if the gold price in US dollars will surpass its all time high just over $1900 per troy ounce recorded in August 2011. At that time gold moved very quickly, shooting up from $1545 to $1900 over a 5-6 week period between 12 July and 22 August 2011. While this proves that moves in the gold price can be rapid when they happen, there is no assurance that US dollar gold will act the same this time round.
But for savers and investors in gold, silver and platinum, this certainly is an exciting time to keep an eye on prices, safe in the knowledge that your precious metals savings and investments are preserving your wealth while all around fiat currencies continue to weaken.
Gold and Silver Prices are Ready to Move Higher
Gold and silver prices are ready to move higher, after a brief consolidation period, even though recent price behavior is not supporting this notion. Today, gold dipped back below $1,500 an ounce and silver dipped below $17 an ounce. However, do not let the white noise of gold and silver price volatility distract you. The world’s political and banking leaders are trying to distract everyone today by putting lipstick on the ugly situation of an economic pig that has no legs to stand on at the current time. We constantly here leaders telling us to stay calm and that everything will be okay, the same pacifying message passed on to British citizens by the State during World War II. Though I don’t recommend you panic, I do recommend that you don’t fall victim to this endless deceitful propaganda and that you dig deeper to understand the truth of a global economy on its last legs of support from a decade of non-stop quantitative easing and free money.
The truth points to the fact that gold and silver prices are ready to move higher, and much higher, given the insanity of Central Banker enforced monetary policy all around the world. Here are three charts below that display the likely future movements of gold, silver and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. You should look for the floors of the bullish flag formations to provide support for any continued downturn in prices of the below assets and if they are hit, a reversal of prices should form from this point. However, I don’t even expect the bottoms of these flag formations to be hit with all three below assets before prices reverse and continue higher.
Central Bankers have been toying with insanity for the past 10 years in the currency wars they have been waging with their quantitative easing monetary policies, but they are about to go full-blown insane soon. There is no doubt that this decision will lead to much higher gold and silver prices in the long run.
China Partially Lifts Restrictions On Gold Imports
Last week a surprising report emerged from Reuters, namely that as part of its escalating capital controls, Chinese authorities have curbed privategold imports since May as the trade war escalated in a move that could be aimed at curbing outflows of dollars and bolstering its yuan.
According to sources, China’s gold imports were down 300-500 tonnes, with around $15-$25 billion, since May, as the PBOC had for several months curtailed or not granted import quotas to commercial banks responsible for most of the gold that enters the country
Fast forward to today, when Reuters reports that China has partially lifted restrictions on imports of gold, according to bullion industry sources. According to the report, the central bank began to issue quotas again last week, but for lower amounts of gold than considered normal, “three people with direct knowledge of the matter in London and Asia said – without specifying exact amounts.”
“Some (quotas) have been given,” said one of the sources, adding that these were “less than usual.” It’s a “partial lift” of the restrictions, another source said.
China has become a key swing driver in gold prices: it is now the world’s biggest importer of gold, with around 1,500 tonnes of metal worth some $60 billion – equivalent to one-third of the world’s total supply – entering the country last year. Chinese demand for gold jewelry, investment bars and coins has trebled in the last two decades as the country has rapidly become wealthier. China’s official gold reserves meanwhile rose fivefold to nearly 2,000 tonnes, according to official data.
The recent sharp move higher in gold coincided with the sharp escalation in the currency war between the US and China, prompting many to speculate that Chinese residents had been aggressively buying up the yellow metal, in the process adding further downward pressure on the yuan.
The last time Beijing took steps to curb capital outflows was when its currency weakened in the aftermath of the 2015 devaluation when the PBOC enforced restrictions on gold imports in 2016. The result was a surge in cryptocurrencies as Chinese savers took to the digital currency in lieu of gold purchases.
While no clear data for capital outflows exist, a measure from China’s balance of payments called errors and omissions points to $88 billion leaving in the first three months of this year, the most on record.
As we reported previously, Chinese customs figures showed the country imported 228 tonnes less gold in May and June – the last month for which data is available – than in the same two months of 2018. By mid-August, up to 500 tonnes less gold had entered China since May than over the same period last year, people in the bullion industry said.
There’s obviously something going on in the world economy that’s causing gold (and lately silver) to rapidly advance. Leading bullion dealer Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin has seen sales accelerate, but it’s the high net worth sophisticated investors who are buying the bulk of it. Joe Six Pack is as usual late joining the party. Andy believes it’s de-dollarization that’s been causing the run-up, but of course there are other factors at play. Euro-zone weakness, impending Brexit, Chinese Economic weakening and much more. But bullion sales are up and for a good reason.
Macri Massacre Monday: Goldman Says CFK Coming Back As Argentina Slides Into The Abyss
With Argentina’s capital markets sliding into the abyss on what we have dubbed Macri Massacre Monday, when the country’s President unexpectedly lost a primary vote by a landslide, Goldman has effectively thrown in the towel and tells clients that “rather than incoming polls or specific political maneuvers, going forward investors may want to center their attention on any hints about the broad contours of the economic agenda of a probable Fernandez-Kirchner administration.”
In other words, brace for the second coming of CFK…. something markets are clearing doing with Argentina CDS exploding higher, and now reflecting a 72% probability of default in 5 years, up nearly 50% from 49% as of Friday.
And with the CDS market having spoken, everyone else is following with Argentina equities imploding, as the Merval sinks 12%, its worst one day slide since 2008.
One wonders when fund investors – such as Templeton’s Michael Hasenstab who may be on Epstein-watch this morning – will preemptively confiscate Argentina’s ship ahead of the coming default, and CFK 2.0 return.
For all those curious, here is Goldman’s hot take on what a bang up job the IMF did in Argentina:
A Much Worse than Expected Defeat for the Ruling Coalition in the Primaries
The main opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez (Frente de Todos) won the presidential primary elections (PASO) by a landslide on Sunday. Mr. Fernandez, whose ticket included former president Cristina Kirchner as running mate, won almost 48% of the votes, well ahead of incumbent president Mauricio Macri (Juntos por El Cambio) with 32% of the votes. The nearly 16 percentage point gap was much larger than what could be inferred from virtually all polls, which pointed to a tight race between the top two contenders.
Mr. Fernandez’s strong performance in the primaries already leaves him well positioned to win the elections in the first round on October 27, without the need for a run-off. Argentine constitutional rules determine that a front runner presidential candidate who obtains more than 45% of the valid votes or who obtains more than 40% of the valid votes together with a 10 point-lead over of the runner-up will be automatically elected. Importantly, these thresholds exclude blank votes, which could slightly boost Mr. Fernandez’s final tally relative to the PASO.
In addition to the surprisingly large deficit relative to the front runner, other elements reinforce the extent of Mr. Macri’s setback on Sunday. First, the primaries recorded a reasonably high participation rate (approximately 76% of the 33.8 million registered voters; broadly in line with the 2015 PASO). Second, the primaries were largely dominated by the Frente de Todos and Juntos por El Cambio coalitions as expected; centrist candidates like former Minister Lavagna (Consenso Federal) lagged far behind the top two contenders. Hence, the “reservoir” of potential new voters available to Mr. Macri ahead of the first-round elections may be reasonably limited. To turn things around, the incumbent will likely need to swing a large number of votes away from the opposition, which seems improbable in this highly divisive political backdrop.
The primaries for the governorship of the province of Buenos Aires – home to nearly 40% of the national electorate – proved to be another resounding defeat for the Juntos por El Cambio block. Incumbent Governor Maria Eugenia Vidal obtained less than 33% of the votes, trailing former Minister Axel Kicillof (Frente de Todos) by a nearly insurmountable 17 percentage points. Such a large shortfall is revealing as Ms. Vidal is one of the most popular leaders within the ruling coalition, having been touted by some insiders as a more competitive option for the presidential race compared to Mr. Macri.
By all odds, domestic and international investors will be disappointed with the results of the PASO. The probable deterioration of sentiment and the resulting tightening of financial conditions in coming days and weeks may pose yet another headwind to the still fragile recovery of the Argentine economy. More importantly from a political standpoint, renewed depreciation pressures on the Peso may delay and perhaps even reverse the incipient decline in consumer price inflation, harming the image of the Macri administration and weighing further on the president’s reelection bid.
We believe these results of the PASO would be nearly irreversible. Rather than incoming polls or specific political maneuvers, going forward investors may want to center their attention on any hints about the broad contours of the economic agenda of a probable Fernandez-Kirchner administration.
And speaking of the IMF, and its outgoing head Christine Lagarde, after destroying Argentina again, Lagarde is now off to mercifully finish Europe as head of the ECB.
“In This Age Of Insanity, I Thought Nothing Could Surprise Me Anymore!”
I thought in this age of insanity that we are living in, nothing would surprise me anymore.
But sure enough, there was a headline in the Financial Times the other day, “Central banks should consider giving people money.”
It seems almost impossible that someone could believe in something so ridiculous. And yet this is the world we are living in. The path to prosperity is now based on unelected central bankers conjuring millions of dollars out of thin air.
Bankrupt governments are issuing bonds with negative yields, meaning they are being paid to go deeper into debt. And there are more than $15 trillion of these negative yielding bonds in the world.
If anything this makes a compelling case for why people should consider owning gold.
It’s a store of value with a 5,000 year track record of withstanding inflation, political crisis, and monetary stupidity.
I’ve been suggesting people consider buying gold for quite some time, especially over the last year. I argue that the supply of gold, is actually declining, yet the demand will increase in large part due to all of this central bank lunacy.
And that has absolutely been happening. The price of gold is up more than 25% over the last year, and just surpassed $1,500 per ounce. But unlike most other assets like real estate, stocks, bonds, etc, gold is still far from it’s all time high.
There could still be plenty of gains ahead.
And silver would have to triple before it reaches it’s all time high.
Every summer for the past eight years, I’ve enjoyed a week or two in the Italian countryside at a 400 plus year old villa. Here I relax with friends, family, business colleagues, and some of our Total Access members who fly in from around the world, to break bread and enjoy really stimulating and entertaining conversations.
This year Peter Schiff has been one of my guests. He’s an old friend who shares many of the same beliefs. And when our conversation this morning turned to gold, I thought it appropriate to record it, and make a Podcast out of it.
In our conversation we talk about why gold and silver have plenty of room to rise, and a number of different ways to invest.
DEMAND FOR GOLD COINS SOARING
Collectors value the Pandas simply for their aesthetic beauty; and it probably doesn’t hurt that the dealers authorized by the People’s Bank of China to sell Pandas in the US have a virtual monopoly on the market. Still, this situation can be exploited to your advantage– the difference between the buy price in Hong Kong and the sell price in North America is roughly $275 per 1-ounce coin.
For anyone looking to hold gold as a store of value or even medium of exchange, major gold coin mintage’s like the Eagle, Maple Leaf, and Krugerrand are advantageous because they’re recognizable worldwide.
You can do business in a coin shop anywhere in the world from Vancouver to Vanuatu with one of these coins; bulk bullion, on the other hand, needs to be specially weighed and assayed by experts before being traded. For this reason, the premiums for which gold coins sell tend to rise substantially in crisis periods when demand for physical metal is high.
In the initial days of the 2008 financial crisis, premiums shot up from 4% to well over 10%, even though the price of gold was simultaneously falling sharply. Hang Seng Bank, Bank of China, and Wing Lung Bank. At Hang Seng Bank, Canadian 1 Oz Maple Leaf coins — in pure, 24 karat gold — were available for cash purchase in Hong Kong dollars at just 0.5% above the prevailing spot price of gold. This is dirt-cheap… or as they say in Chile, ‘precio de huevos’, and it certainly presents an interesting arbitrage opportunity.
Depending on your objectives, however, there may be even better gold coin buys in Hong Kong at the moment. Over at the Bank of China, for example, the Chinese Panda coins were quoted at 4.9% above spot gold. Personally, I think the Panda is one of the most beautiful gold coins of all, and in North America they typically sell for much greater mark-ups above the spot price of gold than most other coins, often over 20%. In the UK it’s even more…….
Reminder….. If you have/own/ gold and it is not in your hand…..It will not be yours when you try to retrieve….. READ THIS
Why buy gold now? Because I don’t know
From 2000 through 2012, the price of gold increased every year, rising from around $280 an ounce to nearly $1,700. It was an unprecedented run.
Then, in 2013, gold took a nose dive, losing over 27% of its value.
It was widely reported that the Swiss National Bank, the former bastion of monetary conservatism, lost $10 billion that year just on its gold holdings.
As you probably know, central banks hold a portion of their reserves in gold. The practice goes back to when central banks actually had to have gold on hand to trade in and out of paper money (or even trade for goods and services).
And central banks still hold reserves in gold today, even though they don’t need it to transact like they used to.
So that begs the question, did the Swiss National Bank actuallylose $10 billion? It still had every ounce of gold in its vaults. And gold, after all, is money.
Plus, the SNB wasn’t holding gold to speculate…
Today, central banks hold gold as a hedge against fiat money. These are the guys with their fingers on the printing press… so they know exactly the effect they have on money.
And right now, banks are buying up gold hand over fist. Central banks currently hold 20% of all the gold ever mined—33,000 metric tons.
And JPMorgan Chase says they’ll buy another 650 tons this year and next.
Gold is for the I don’t knows.
And right now, there are a LOT of I don’t knows.
Markets have been going crazy over the past few months.
After a record bull run for stocks, we are now seeing massive volatility with the Dow regularly jumping 500+ points in a single day. Just yesterday, the Dow fell a whopping 800 points.
And there’s plenty of reasons for market to be worried today. For one, we’re 10 years in to a raging bull market… and it’ getting long in the tooth.
Plus, the Fed is raising interest rates. And when the price of money gets more expensive, people get a little tighter with it. That means it’s tougher for businesses and individuals to borrow. All things equal, higher rates mean lower prices.
Before last week, Fed Chairman Powell said rates were “well below” where they should be. And the markets reacted negatively.
Then, last week, after seeing how fragile markets were, Powell said rates are “just below” where they should be.
Just that one word difference sent markets soaring. But the joy was short lived.
There’s also the trade war with China, intensified by the Trump administration tariffs.
And then at the summit in Buenos Aries last week, China and the USA suddenly came to an agreement. They will halt the tariffs for 90 days for a three-month truce in the trade war. That sent markets soaring.
Then people read some tweet from Trump and worried the tariffs might be back on… markets dumped.
If there is one thing markets hate, it is uncertainty. And there’s plenty of uncertainty to go around today.
And while we’re seeing these late-cycle swings in the market, gold is as steady as ever…
While the DOW dips and climbs by hundreds of points, gold is still hanging out just below $1,250 an ounce. And it really hasn’t made any major moves up or down since 2013.
Yet today, an ounce of gold has about the same purchasing power as it had 1,100 years ago… talk about steady.
So while every other asset is still at or near all time highs, gold is relatively cheap.
Gold has held its ground during all this market volatility.
That is exactly how you want insurance to act. It holds steady in the face of craziness, even selling for a discount when everything else is as expensive as it ever has been.
It makes more sense to buy something cheap, that no one is excited about, while people clamber for exciting but massively overvalued stocks like Tesla and Netflix.
Since 2008 this massive monetary experiment of quantitative easing has sent stocks and assets to dizzying, unsustainable highs.
We think this experiment is coming to an end. The day of reckoning is close.
Stocks are up and down, trade wars are on and off, interest rates could keep soaring, or level off…
What do you do for the I don’t knows?
You get some cheap gold while you still can.
And by the way, while gold is on sale, silver is an even better deal.
In ancient times, the price ratio between gold and silver was about 15:1, meaning an ounce of gold was worth about 15 ounces of silver.
But over the past decades, this ratio has been closer to 50:1—an ounce of gold sold for 50 times what an ounce of silver sold for.
Today, that ratio is about 85:1.
To be fair, this could mean gold is overvalued, not that silver in undervalued.
But when gold has the same purchasing power as a millennium ago… when it has stayed steady the past seven years and grew every year of the decade before that…
It’s a safe bet that gold goes up, and silver does too, possibly even more than gold.