The New York Stock Exchange is set to reopen its trading floor on Tuesday, more than eight weeks after it moved all operations to the digital sphere when the coronavirus pandemic sent New York and other parts of the U.S. into lockdown. NYSE President Stacey Cunningham, who worked on the floor during the September 11 terror attacks, told CBS News’ Dana Jacobson about why and how…
Oil Futures Fall Below Zero for First Time in History
White House Leaks Draft Plan To Reopen American Economy
As President Trump declared that he would leave the process of reopening the economy up to the states (with input from federal officials, of course), the Washington Post was releasing a ‘leaked’ report outlining a plan drafted by CDC and FDA that’s essentially a guide for local officials about how to go about reopening the economy.
And in contrast to the ‘guidelines’ released by the governors of California and Oregon, which seemed to imply that the process of reopening the economy could take as long as the rest of the year, if not longer, the administration plan offers a somewhat more realistic timetable.
The plan has been seen and discussed by members of the White House coronavirus task force. But remember, this is only a piece of what is supposed to be a more comprehensive framework that each governor can adjust to their liking. A federal official who spoke on the condition of anonymity with WaPo said the final plan will have 8 parts; this document represents only 2 of them.
The first part of the phased reopening would focus on schools, daycares and places where “children are cared for.”
The plan lays out three-phases: Preparing the nation to reopen with a national communication campaign and community readiness assessment until May 1. Then, the effort, through May 15, would involve ramping up manufacturing of testing kits and personal protective equipment and increasing emergency funding. Then staged reopenings would begin, depending on local conditions. The plan does not give specific dates for reopenings but specified “not before May 1.”
The first priority, according to the CDC response document, is to “reopen community settings where children are cared for, including K-12 schools, daycares, and locally attended summer camps, to allow the workforce to return to work. Other community settings will follow with careful monitoring for increased transmission that exceeds the public health and health care systems.”
The process of a managed reopening will take much longer than 30 days: in fact, the administration expects there will be “some level” of government involvement until a vaccine is finally developed.
The document also says that during phased reopenings, it is critical to strictly follow recommendations on hand-washing and wearing face coverings in group settings.
The plan also carries this warning: “Models indicate 30-day shelter in place followed by 180 day lifting of all mitigation results in large rebound curve – some level of mitigation will be needed until vaccines or broad community immunity is achieved for recovering communities.”
A tiered approach is outlined in the document: a “moderate exposure” phase-in for former “hotspots” like New York” and a “low exposure” plan that will take things back to normal more quickly in communities where the virus never really spread widely. In the “moderate” track, schools could reopen, but with certain social distancing rules like no sports, and no assemblies.
“We Borrowed From The Future & Now It’s Over…”
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Investment advisor and former Assistant Secretary of Housing Catherine Austin Fitts says, “We’ve been printing massive amounts of dollars, and if you look at all the things we did to stop high speed debasement and unprecedented inflation, we’ve kind of run out of tricks…”
“…Inflation is really sneaking up…
Is basically shutting down the small businesses and the small farm economy at high speed the way they have done, is that protecting us from going up a frightening inflation? Are we at Weimar Republic kind of inflation rates?
I have been telling my subscribers to plant, plant and plant because the price of food is going to go through the roof. Another one of my questions: What’s pressing for war? Is the debt spiral up and the inflation spiral up, is that more than they can handle?”
Fitts also says the covert war going on now is about the U.S. dollar and countries who want to stop using it for trade.
If the dollar is used less, it will be worth less and maybe much less. Fitts says,
“We have tried to keep all the oil sales in the world going through the dollar. Of course, that’s put everybody back into our jurisdiction. The world doesn’t want to do that anymore. They want to be free to trade.
You are seeing more and more central banks around the world doing swap lines and direct relationships between central bank to central bank to try to do what is called de-dollarization.
So, you have the world wanting to move outside our channel, and you have the Anglo American alliance trying to protect the dollar syndicate. That is part of the economic war that is going on.”
Fitts says, “Whatever happens on the global stage, it means the days of the subsidy that kept the game inside America is over…”
“…So, how do you radically reduce the size of the financial footprint that stops inflation from going wild?
How do you take the subsidy away from the American middle class without a major civil war?…
What we did was we did the China trade, and now it’s over, and everybody in America said fine, we will go along. Well, this is the price. You have borrowed from the future and now it’s over.”
Why the sudden record gun buying in America? Fitts says,
“They understand that the rule of law is steadily being diminished. They see all sorts of behavior… that is lawless…
They see people in poverty say if anything goes for the big guys, then anything goes for us…
Part of what is happening is we are dealing with a spiritual war, and there are serious demonic and occult forces at work. There is nothing they would love more than to stop the churches and stop people from getting together and praying and inviting in the divine and angelic hope every Sunday. I am with the President. I think stopping the churches from gathering is a very, very terrible idea.”
Fitts also still thinks gold is a good investment that will “outperform most other investments in 2020.”
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Catherine Austin Fitts, publisher of “The Solari Report.”
Dow kicks off Q2 by closing down nearly 1,000 points on Wednesday
The steep decline comes the day after the Dow finished its worst first quarter ever
April 1, 2020 –
The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday kicked off the the second quarter with a steep decline of nearly 1,000 points.
The decline came on the heels of Tuesday’s more than 400-point drop that concluded the Dow’s worst first quarter in history. The index fell more than 23 percent during the first quarter.
The Dow on Wednesday fell 973.65 points.The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wednesday each posted 4.4 percent losses.
MIT Biologist and Inventer of Email – Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai – Says Deep State Fear Mongering on Coronavirus Will Go Down as Biggest Fraud to Manipulate Economies
Boston-based entrepreneur and inventor of Email Dr. V.A. Shiva Ayyadurai says the coronavirus fear mongering by the Deep State will go down in history as one of the biggest frauds ever…
Ayyadurai is a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is best known for his claim to have invented email.
Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, who performs research nearly every day on the humun immune system, says the coronavirus scare the #coronavirus fear mongering by the Deep State will go down in history as one of the biggest fraud to manipulate economies, suppress dissent, & push MANDATED Medicine!
Honeywell, a company well known for its involvement in aerospace and system controls, has made a major advance in quantum computing. This week, the company announced it will reveal its new quantum computer sometime in the next three months. It will be at least twice as powerful as any current device, and it’s changing the way tech companies are talking about quantum computing.
Content Contributed By — TruNews Team
Veteran MD Drops Bombshell About 5G Technology Dangers At 5G Hearing
Posted By: AndiV
Date: Monday, 9-Mar-2020 08:23:09
Gold / Silver Miners Index (XAU) Chart
The rally in precious metals has been impressive.
Gold is up over 9 percent in 2020 and over 35 percent in the past 18 months. Silver is up nearly 4 percent in 2020 and over 25 percent in the past 18 months.
And when precious metals prices are strong, it provides a strong tailwind to gold and silver mining stocks.
Today’s chart highlights the rally on the Gold & Silver Mining Index (XAU)… and why it’s nearing an inflection point.
XAU is testing a price level where four support/resistance lines come into play at (1), near the 112 level.
The outcome at (1) will send an important message to the mining sector as to whether the rally will pause and pullback, or continue higher. Stay tuned!
JPMorgan Criminal Case Coming for Silver Manipulations
The JP Morgan silver criminal case is coming.
This week we learned that U.S. authorities at the DoJ, who have for years not only accused various JPMorgan Chase & Co. employees of rigging precious-metals futures but also got many to plead guilty. The US Department of Justice (DoJ) is now, more importantly, building a criminal case against America’s biggest bank itself.
The previously unreported investigation of the global bank’s parent company, part of a wide-ranging attempt by the Federal government to maintain shreds of its former financial market credibility, raises the now new prospect of criminal charges against higher up executives within the United States’ largest bank.
And perhaps even larger implications are coming to this once considered too big to fail, therefore we must bail them out bank.
One which today in 2020, and seemingly year after year the Bank for International Settlements’ Financial Stability Board ascribes as being the #1 Global-Sytimatic Important Bank (G-SIB). In terser terms, JP Morgan’s stability is consistently ranked by the central bank of central banks, as being the largest threat to our global financial system functioning smoothly (new Bank Bail-In Laws on the books still).
Today we will dig into some details about this coming criminal case against JP Morgan Chase.
JPMorgan Criminal Case | Silver Podcast | Gold Podcast
And too, we will have a brief look back at what happened the last time entities this powerful were in the business of suppressing precious metals prices both for-profit and power.
Hello out there, this is James Anderson with SD Bullion.
For the past dozen years investing and working in the bullion industry, I can humbly say that I have a pretty sharp understanding of the sentiment that many precious metals interested investors have out there.
They range of our perspectives is wide and colorful with delusional bulls to the world’s going to end bears.
But this week’s news builds burgeoning hopes that our financial markets might one day see some criminal higher-up market rigging bankster prosecutions once and for all.
Cynics will rightly claim our financial markets have for some time been acting under shades of criminality, with anti-competitive behaviors, and crony capitalism runs amok.
It is too exhaustive to even recount all the evidence those cynics have for making such points, but we’ll cover a few here.
To begin we have a quick clip from a channel whose program I was humbled to be on this past week.
The Kennedy Financial hour today published a live roundtable with other precious metals analysts discussing their thoughts on this newest JP Morgan criminal bank probe news.
We’ll begin with the close of a somewhat broken-hearted cynical take by Chris Marchese, only to be followed up by Rob Kirby rattling some off potential fraud as a business model evidence at hand.
Swinging back and forth from the optimistic to the cynical camp we have a couple of financial tweets for the week.
Given that nothing of any substance has happened yet, I found this back and forth interesting and telling, you might too.
Crying tears of joy: JPMorgan’s Role in Metals Spoofing Is Under U.S. Criminal Probe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/jpmorgan-s-role-in-metals-spoofing-is-under-u-s-criminal-probe …
JPMorgan’s Role in Metals Spoofing Is Under U.S. Criminal Probe
U.S. authorities that accused six JPMorgan Chase & Co. employees of rigging precious-metals futures are building a criminal case against the bank itself, two people familiar with the situation said.
Blah blah blah whatever. Their ship full of $1.3 bn in DRUGS was caught and nothing happened there. JP Morgan’s job is to short the metals markets, like Bear before it. Spoofing was only considered a crime for the first time last year.
Pam and Russ Martens over at WallStreetOnParade.com have some interesting points regarding JP Morgan’s seemingly endless alleged financial criminality.
They wrote this week some of the following points to consider,
Yesterday, Bloomberg News reporters Tom Schoenberg and Liam Vaughan broke the story that JPMorgan Chase is under a criminal probe by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) over charges of rigging gold, silver and other precious metals markets. Six traders who worked on the precious metals desk at JPMorgan Chase have been indicted thus far but this is the first report that the bank itself is also under a criminal investigation. This marks the fourth criminal probe of the bank in the past 8 years by the U.S. Department of Justice with the bank pleading guilty to three felony counts in two of the prior criminal investigations.
There was a time in America when a criminal probe of the nation’s largest bank, which holds $1.6 trillion in the life savings of moms and pops at more than 5300 bank branches across the country, would have been worthy of a front-page headline. Not today. Crime and fraud are so de rigueur at the bank led by Dimon that not one major newspaper ran the headline on the front page or anywhere else in the paper.
… in August, September and again in November of last year (2019), the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase were put on notice that the bank they were overseeing under their designated leader, Jamie Dimon, was accused of running a criminal enterprise out of its precious metals desk. They were also aware that at least two of those indicted are cooperating with the DOJ in the ongoing investigation. And yet, they still awarded Jamie Dimon a pay package of $31.5 million and allowed him to announce that he planned to remain at the bank for another five years.
This is demonstrably a criminal recidivist bank. Dimon and the Board need to be removed. The bank needs to be broken up with the federally-insured bank placed under a sane, ethical, competent Board of Directors.
It’s debatable when was the last time we had this much financial chicanery and criminality. I presume if we asked those who had to sober up during the great depression, they might admit that things got a little crazy and over-leveraged during the Glass-Steagall-less 1920s Wall Street era.
For anyone who has bothered to look at the current US car loan debt bubble, perhaps similar deals measured in gold will be rhyming to in time.
This current stock bubble by some massively important far-reaching measures is now more extended than ever before.
By looking back at the Dow Jones measured in gold we can see we are at 1929 levels here again in the year 2020.
The trouble for higher bullish stock values on that chart is the rolling over and the likely return beyond 5 and perhaps to parity again one day to come.
Thanks for visiting reading and hearing our coverage of this coming criminal case.
15 Chief Economists Predict Solid Economic Growth and Stable Interest Rates
Key Provisions of US–China ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal..…….read here
“Death To Liars!” Iran Swept By Wave Of Protests Demanding Ayatollah Quit Over Airplane Downing
Mass protests have again broken out in Iran at the end of a chaotic week for the country, capped by the early Saturday admission and apology for the military accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 176 people on board.
Additionally, it appears that the British ambassador in Tehran, Rob Macaire, was arrested shortly after photographing the protests. Iranian state sources are alleging he was helping to “organize” and incite the protests.
The UK ambassador to Iran Rob Macaire has been arrested during the protests in Tehran on Saturday, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
Macaire was present during the Saturday protests in front of Tehran’s Amir Kabir University and was arrested then, Tasnim’s report said.
Though he’s reportedly already been released, the incident is likely to spark a major diplomatic row between the UK and Iran, given it’s almost unheard of to arrest a country’s highest diplomatic official.
In the first major protests since the Jan.2 US assassination of IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani, angry student-led demonstrations broke out in front of Tehran’s Amir Kabir university …
“No More Transit Risk”: Ukraine & Russia Ink Landmark Gas Transit Deal, Hammering European Gas Prices
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has hailed the completion of an against all odds landmark deal with Russia’s Gazprom as ensuring “energy security and prosperity for Ukrainians.”
It will keep natural gas flowing to Western Europe via Ukraine for the next five years, which is estimated to net Ukraine $7 billion (€6.25 billion) in gas transit fees by 2024.
After a series of compromise breakthroughs over the past weeks, including Gazprom paying out $2.9 billion legal settlement to Naftogaz and Kiev in turn agreeing to wave a separate legal claim, the two sides finally inked the historic deal on Monday, which signals a broader thawing in tensions and dramatic deescalation after Moscow and Kiev have for years stood on the brink of open war.
Per Gazprom Chairman Alexey Miller, the accord has already gone into effect as of Tuesday: “After five days of uninterrupted negotiations in Vienna, definitive decisions have been made and final deals have been reached,” he said in a statement.
And Zelenskiy further presented it as an ‘everyone wins’ breakthrough: “Europe knows that we will not fail when it comes to energy security,” he said. Indeed European gas markets immediately felt the effects:
European gas and power prices extended declines after a last-gasp accord between Russia and Ukraine on natural gas flows averted a winter supply crisis.
According to Bloomberg’s analysis:
“There’s no more transit risk,” said Thierry Bros, an associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian & Eurasian Studies. “We are in a world with a lot of LNG and piped gas and the Russians want to keep their market share in Europe.”
Benchmark Dutch gas prices dropped 0.7%, taking their record annual plunge to 44%. German power traded at its lowest level since May 2018.
This collective sigh of relief which came down to the wire, given the previous accord was set to expire on December 31, further comes ironically enough after sanctions-happy Washington has claimed all along to be acting in Ukraine and Europe’s best interest as it shouts “Russian interference” in Europe’s energy sector (especially given current US pressures over the Nord Stream 2 direct Russia-Germany pipeline).
Clearly the parties now hailing the new deal don’t see it that way. Instead, all indicators suggest a slow rapprochement between Russia and Ukraine, driven by necessity of supplying energy to Europe, and given Russia naturally wants to keep its significant chunk of the European market online.
It bears repeating that such good faith compromise between the two just isn’t supposed to happen! — that is according to the shrill cries of the neo-Cold War pundits who keep telling us Putin is not only bent on taking over Ukraine, but Europe as well — especially through gas and energy dominance.
Billionaires Warn of Stock Market Dip if Democrat Beats Trump in 2020, Expert Agrees
So what are the aforesaid imbeciles and dolts saying about this decline? You guessed it! It reflects “fading hopes” that the U.S. and China will successfully conclude a trade deal. Of course, even the imbeciles cannot believe such claptrap any longer, and both they and the dolts must realize by now that the talks are being stage-managed to drag on till the end of time.
To fully appreciate how stupid trade-deal spin has become, we need only consider that the stock market is trading higher than it was before the tariff war began. Shares mostly rose while the matter remained unsettled, stumbling only momentarily when China appeared to tell Trump there would be no deal. But even that downer has lost its hold on Wall Street’s giddy permabulls. Regardless, stocks will turn higher when cosmic karma decrees that it is time.
This is all but ordained because, as I’ve mentioned here before, and if for no other reason, AAPL must reach a minimum 283.97 before the fat lady sings. When bullish fever returns, so, inevitably, will headlines that say talks with China are back on track. If you actually believe such hogwash, you are likely to be among those who will stay fully invested until the next bear market hits bottom.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2019
Blowoff tops are rarely identified in the present. Even geniuses get fooled. But if we look at one simple indicator–the number of financial types denying this is a blowoff top and the number calling this the blowoff top of the entire 11-year Fed-induced frenzy of over-valuation– we have to conclude that the odds favor this being the blowoff top nobody expected until some far-off moment in the future. Well just maybe the future has arrived, but nobody noticed………..
FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., November 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
November 12, 2019
(Reuters) – U.S. stocks eked out slim gains at open on Tuesday, buoyed by technology stocks, as investors looked forward to a speech by President Donald Trump later in the day for clarity on U.S.-China trade relations.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average <.DJI> rose 10.10 points, or 0.04%, at the open to 27,701.59. The S&P 500 <.SPX> opened higher by 2.27 points, or 0.07%, at 3,089.28. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> gained 6.80 points, or 0.08%, to 8,471.07 at the opening bell.
The Bank of Canada’s Crafty $640 Billion “Poloz Tax” – Confiscation Targets Seniors and Pensioners
The spike in U.S. repo rates to more than 10% in late September drew barely a yawn from mainstream media.
The repo market, where troubled banks* lend each other short-term cash, is technical.
Furthermore, U.S. government-appointed officials** quickly jumped in and forced interest rates back down to the Federal Reserve’s then 2% – 2.25% range.
The episode, which suggests interest rates in the repo market are being supressed by at least 8%, sheds important light on the scale of government interventions in financial markets.
U.S. repo rates—due to the dollar’s reserve currency status—influence all other interest rates throughout the yield curve around the world.
Here in Canada, the implications are staggering.
Interest rate suppression: a bigger confiscation than income taxes
If interest rate suppression, which is coordinated by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, amounts to eight percentage points (8%) across the yield curve, that implies $664 billion*** is being secretly confiscated from savers and transferred to borrowers each year.
The suppression provides a stunning example of what Frédéric Bastiat, one of the inspirations for the Misesian school of economics, used to say: what you don’t see is often more important than what is visible.
Interest rate suppression—which takes a variety of forms ranging from government money printing to bailouts of fractional reserve banks—isn’t visible to the average Canadian.
However, the process enables the government to confiscate four times as much from savers than the entire $162.8 billion that it collected in incomes taxes during the 2018-2019 fiscal year***
The biggest bank in Europe is in the process of imploding, and there are persistent rumors that the final collapse could happen sooner rather than later.
Those that follow my work on a regular basis already know that this is a story that I have been following for years. Deutsche Bank is rapidly bleeding cash, they have been laying off thousands of workers, and the vultures have been circling as company executives desperately try to implement a turnaround plan. Unfortunately for Deutsche Bank, it may already be too late. And if Deutsche Bank goes down, it will be even more catastrophic for the global financial system than the collapse of Lehman Brothers was in 2008. Germany is the glue that is holding the EU together, and so if the bank that is right at the heart of Germany’s financial system collapses, the dominoes will likely start falling very rapidly.
There has been a tremendous amount of speculation about Deutsche Bank over the past several days, and so let’s start with what we know.
Rabobank: “Is It Getting Crazier Out There, Or Is It Just Me?”
Happy Halloween! On what was supposed to be Brexit day we instead need to find other things to be scared of. Fortunately, there are plenty out there. Indeed, Halloween seemed an appropriate time for me to finally watch ‘Joker’ – and if there was ever a film oozing angry ‘Age of Rage’ populism this is it. It literally shouts “Kill the rich!” in places. Ironically, trying to watch Joker while several rows in of seats in front of me were illuminated by mobile phones held aloft like lighters during an 80’s hair-metal power ballad by a generation too young to even know what the 1980’s were almost produced the same violent reaction in me as one scissors-related scene: amazingly, even said scene did not prompt the guy in front of me to look up from his device. “Is it getting crazier out there, or is it just me?”
Meanwhile, a Joker-style uprising in Chile has seen the country forced to cancel hosting the 2020 APEC summit. That’s the kind of barbarians-getting-through-the-gates development that markets really don’t like; and unless a Trump resort is available(?) perhaps there will be no APEC at this year. In which case, where are Trump and Xi going to sit down and sign this ‘phase one’ trade deal? (The one that we think is an empty box rather than anything substantive.)
Anyway, checking after viewing I see that Joker currently has a 69% critics rating on the review-aggregator website Rotten Tomatoes vs. an 89% audience score. That’s an arbitrage opportunity–buy or sell it, depending on which score you trust–but not as large as for a new D.C.-Universe neighbour, the Batwoman TV show, which has a 71% critics rating but just a 12% audience score. Is it angry US culture wars or are Russians involved somewhere again…
The question is being asked in the real D.C. universe in the presidential impeachment process. With no irony, the latest bomb dropped is that John “Bomb ‘em” Bolton is to testify; a man alleged to be akin to a previous Joker iteration in that he “just wants to see the world burn” is now being looked at as a voice of reason by those same critics. Of course, as every step is taken members of the D.C. team will be checking audience vs. critics scores to see if impeachment really is a good idea or not politically – and that arbitrage is again important for markets.
In the expanded D.C. universe yesterday we also had the outcome of the Fed meeting. Against the backdrop of GDP healthily beating expectations at 1.9% q/q annualized, driven by both household and state spending (a figure helpfully mocked by the editor of The Global Times for being far less than China’s “6% growth”), the Fed decided to cut rates 25bp for a third time this year to 1.75%. More importantly, the Fed made clear that this is it: the mid-cycle adjustment that it had absolutely no idea would be necessary back in January this year is now complete and they are on hold. Chairman (Ker)-Powell also added that it would require a major shift upwards in inflation to get them to raise rates again, or for geopolitics to go wrong for them to be forced to cut: otherwise they are done.
As our own D.C. hero Philip Marey makes clear here, we strongly disagree. Our view is that the economic data released in recent weeks have been outright alarming. They point to a sustained and significant contraction in manufacturing, a slowdown in the services sector and a slowdown in employment growth. There was even an unexpected decline in retail sales. As a result, we expect a recession in the second half of 2020 that will force the Fed to cut rates all the way back to zero. Oh, and we does not think the Repo issue is under control either. More to come there too.
Anyway, back to critics/audience arbitrage. In Joker the eponymous madman launches into an angry tirade at the world: “All of you, the system that knows so much, you decide what’s right or wrong. The same way that you decide what’s funny or not.” Given central-bank and central-government shepherding of asset prices, can we really say the same isn’t true if we substitute the word “funny” for “value”?
Where is the value of a bond or a stock if there were no central-bank backstop? Are we about to find out if the Fed are going to sit on their hands, as we don’t think they will? And isn’t it ironic that supervillains and banks end up together in my mind even when there is no bank-robbing going on in a Joker movie that was far more Taxi Driver than Batmobile?
Is that scary enough for you? No? Well how about Treasury Secretary Mnuchin proposing the removal of some of the post-crisis reporting requirements for RMBS to help the markets along? That should raise as many hairs on the back of the neck as it does champagne glasses near term. And want another Halloween scare? On the Brexit front it appears that the Lib Dems have struck an electoral Remain pact with the Green Party and Welsh nationalists and former Tory Dominic “General Grievous” Grieve….and the latest news on the other side is that the Brexit Party is prepared to stand down in Tory marginal seats and only attack key Leave-voting Labour constituencies. If true, that makes Remain the popular equivalent of the D.C. Universe before Wonder Woman vs. Leave’s Marvel Comics Universe ensemble – even if the latter is ironically led by BoJo(ker). Early days, but it looks like a potential power shift towards a strong Leave victory.
Yet Halloween has candy too. As Joker says, “All I have are negative thoughts.” Fortunately not all we have are negative yields – indeed there are a few trillion less today than a few months ago. And we can try to accentuate the positive further: sometimes real value slips through ‘the system’ anyway. As someone quipped regarding Greece issuing debt at negative yields, at least now we openly see those buying Greek bonds won’t be getting all their money back!
This morning also saw an enormous and unexpected surge in Aussie building approvals (up 7.6% m/m vs. flat consensus) as the market once again moves from outright gloom back to bubble territory, at least in Sydney and Melbourne. It’s a choppy series but this underlines: 1) RBA cuts are less likely near term; and 2) Australia has become like the Chinese economy on which it relies. There are fewer and fewer productive business opportunities to invest in, so one either goes all-in on property (when the RBA, APRA, and government give the thumbs up) or one goes all out (when the RBA, APRA, and government give the thumbs down). There is no moderate house-price inflation scenario: it’s dangerous bubble or dangerous bust. Which one do you think the Jokers at the RBA will want to lean towards, via Aussie QE if needed?
We also had China’s manufacturing PMI far weaker than expected at 49.3 and non-manufacturing PMI at 52.8, meaning a composite of 52.0, down from 53.1. So on top of all the other screams today, we can add a slowing Chinese economy.
Stocks Ramp To Unchanged On China “Breakthrough” Tweet
And just like that, we are unch…
Thanks to a perfectly timed tweet from Global Times Editor Hi Xijin, algos ignited momentum at the cash open, sending stocks back to unchanged on the day…
Based on what I know, China-US trade talks made breakthrough last week and the two sides have the strong will to reach a final deal. Initial statement of the Chinese side is moderate. This is China’s habit. It doesn’t mean China’s real attitude is not positive.
And with bonds closed, there’s no one left to rationalize market moves.
Did Everything Just Change?
It’s hard to imagine a more euphoric end to the week for bulls.
Two weeks ago I issued a report titled Realistically, What’s Left To Power Asset Prices Higher? which claimed the bulls only hope was for a near-term resumption of QE (quantitative easing, aka “money printing”) or a China trade deal.
Well, this week they got both.
Jerome Powell announced Wednesday that the U.S. Federal Reserve will resume expanding its balance sheet to the tune of $60 billion per month. And just a few hours ago, the Trump administration announced it had reached a partial trade agreement with its Chinese counterparts.
And to put a cherry on top of things, word from across the Pond is that somehow a Brexit deal just might happen by the end of the month.
When I began typing this article earlier today, the markets were fiercely building towards an orgiastic climax. They ended with a slight post-coital breather, closing modestly off the day’s highs.
In short, the bulls are suddenly having the time of their lives.
So, does this mean happy days have returned? Have we been rescued from the rising tide of data warning of an economic slowdown and lower asset prices? Does the Fed — and now China, too — have our back again?
Is it time for investors to become optimistic once more?
“Markets” No More
Before we answer that, though, let’s address the elephant in the room. We no longer have functioning financial markets.
The central banking cartel has killed price discovery. The $15+ TRILLION in liquidity injected by the Fed, EBC, BoJ, BoE and PBoC over the past decade has ‘risen all boats’ when it comes to asset prices.
Whether great, mediocre, or horrible, the price of nearly every company/property/investment has been on a one-way 45-degree ramp upwards since global co-ordinated quantitative easing began in 2009.
And Wednesday’s announcement by the Fed simply shows that this game will continue, despite years of broken promises that it would instead ‘normalize’ (i.e., undo much of its past QE).
As a result, we live in a world where traditional price signals have become meaningless. Management turmoil? Missed earnings expectations? Regulators cracking down on your industry? None of it matters in a world of perpetual QE. As long as stimulus keeps flowing, everything heads in the same direction: UP.
All that matters is guessing what the small coterie of central bankers plan to do next. Will they tighten from here? Or ease? By how much? And for how long?
As a result, ‘investing’ is a dead science. Instead, we’ve all been forced to become speculators.
Meanwhile, extremely manipulable high frequency trading (HFT) algorithms dominate the daily price action. Stock prices now hyper-react instantly to every tweet and leak, which the media and the Trump administration now exploit to maximum advantage.
Seriously — and this is topic for a future lengthy exploration — those in favor of removing President Trump may have a better case to make for market manipulation as his impeachable offense. He’s been shoving market prices around on a daily basis for years now. And how are his tweets this week — one of which instantly sent the Dow skyrocketing 300 points on Thursday — not considered in flagrante delicto examples of painting the tape? (a prohibited form of manipulation in which the criminal ‘creates activity or rumors to drive up the price of a stock’):
Time To Pile Back Into The Market?
But making the (safe) assumption no one in power cares about our broken markets as long as they benefit from the status quo, where are prices more likely to go from here?
Two weeks ago, I argued that the only things that would save the bulls in the near term was new QE and a China deal. Now that the past 48 hours delivered on both counts, the outlook for the rest of 2019 is now substantially more complex to forecast.
Nearly all of the negative indicators we’ve been warning about still remain. The macro outlook still screams recession risk, corporate earnings are still forecast to disappoint, geopolitical strains remain unresolved, and the world’s oil supply chain looks even more vulnerable given today’s news that an Iranian oil tanker was struck by missiles in the Red Sea.
That said, Powell’s new $60 billion per month QE program (which he swears isn’t really QE) will surely have a stimulative impact on the system. Even if those funds don’t make it out into the economy directly, they will keep both good and bad banks solvent and thus keep credit flowing. That will help in keeping today’s zombie companies/jobs/buyback programs alive for the foreseeable future.
As for the China trade deal, honestly, who knows at the moment? Technically, what was announced today isn’t officially an agreement. And what was “agreed” to by the parties were the less-sensitive issues on the table.
Bloomberg controlled most of the information flow about today’s trade news, and this is how its own staff economists summarize today’s “progress”. Not exactly breathless optimism:
Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank
Yesterday I was watching a video of Yale History professor Timothy Snyder in which he states “It’s patently clear that some of the people who’re involved in current politics…are borrowing some of the tactics of the 1920s and 1930s.” That came hours after discussing another article comparing the political talk in the UK to the rhetoric of Joseph Goebbels. And look at today’s headlines: “Turkey begins offensive against US Ally in Syria”; “Fed worried about rising economic risks from trade war”; “EU offers ultimatum to Johnson on Brexit plan”; “India and China face off over Himalayan flashpoint”; and “Two Killed in Germany Shooting After Failed Attack on Synagogue.”
I published an in-depth report early in the year all about political populism. The key message was we are seeing echoes of the 1920s and 1930s in today’s politics because we echo the economics of the 1920s and 1930s. We had a debt-driven Gilded Age boom prior to 2008 analogous to the Roaring 20s – and then a colossal bust, analogous to 1929. Since then we have failed to work out how to deal with the debt overhang, or to co-ordinate a global recovery between countries (so all boats rise) and within countries (so all boats rise, not just yachts). We haven’t worked out how to ensure capital circulates sustainably internationally or domestically.
As a response, the “will of the people”, “us vs. them”, ‘walls over bridges’ are back: and, most worrying, now as then, for sound underlying reasons. People didn’t just slip into madness in the 1930s: as Arendt makes clear, if “normality” offers you are a raw deal, you will opt for an alternative. What is being sold via today’s populism may not be a solution: yet neither is the status quo ante. Indeed, we repeat our errors. For example, take the Fed, its history and its present.
How to Win the US-China Trade War and Communist China’s Broader Stealth War on America: Robert Spalding
You’ve heard about the US-China trade war, but how is communist China actually pushing a much broader offensive against the United States?
What exactly is the Chinese Communist Party’s doctrine of Unrestricted Warfare? And why did the American intelligence community and military fail to recognize this threat for so long?
How exactly has the Chinese regime been waging a “Stealth War” against the United States for decades, and what can be done right now to level the playing field?
This is American Thought Leaders ??, and I’m Jan Jekielek.
Today retired Air Force brigadier general Robert Spalding returns to American Thought Leaders ??. He was the chief China strategist for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon, and a senior strategic planner for the White House on the National Security Council. Now, he’s a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
We discuss General Spalding’s new book “Stealth War: How China Took Over While America’s Elite Slept.” We discuss how the Chinese communist regime infiltrated and subverted the United States, using American money. We also explore how the Chinese regime has been incredibly effective at using disinformation and propaganda to control the narrative about itself, both domestically and abroad.
Is There A Ukrainian Armageddon Dead Ahead For Dems?
For three years now, Americans have been hearing the cry “no one is above the law.” Those who have been repeating that mantra – aimed at President Donald Trump – seem to feel, however, that they themselves truly are above the law. As the Democrats’ Ukraine scandal unfolds, this becomes harder to ignore.
A common Democratic Party narrative has already been established. It is evident in relation to the case of Hillary Clinton’s missing emails, the supposedly hacked Democratic National Committee (DNC) server, the 2016 Clinton campaign’s colluding with foreign powers to obtain compromising material on Trump, and now Joe Biden’s corrupt Ukraine racketeering. The narrative goes something like this: To investigate any of these matters – or to even suggest that any Democrat may have acted illegally – is not just un-American but a crime.
This brazenly despotic tactic – demonizing and criminalizing anyone who dares question one’s motives or the legality or morality of one’s actions – was established by the Obama administration. To this day, Obama and his faithful, cultlike followers claim that his time in the White House was scandal-free. Any objective study of his administration’s conduct shows that the opposite was true. In eight years, Obama may have racked up more scandals that any US president in history.
Suggest that anything the Obama administration did was corrupt or inappropriate, though, and one is met with howls of outrage and ridicule. People who dared to mention Solyndra, Benghazi, pallets of cash flown into Tehran in the dead of night, or the government’s dreadful Obamacare website designed by a company owned by an old college friend of Michelle Obama’s were labeled conspiracy theorists or worse.
The very same thing is now happening with regard to Joe Biden, the Clinton 2016 campaign, and Ukraine. The leftist news outlets are hard at work dismissing the entire affair as a right-wing conspiracy theory: Fabricated and debunked.
Democrats and their media underlings are now furiously attempting to bury the entire Biden-DNC-Clinton-Ukraine web of corruption and complicity. Biden himself has even called upon the media to deny Trump’s attorney, Rudy Giuliani, the opportunity to speak about Ukraine. That fact in itself can only cause one to wonder what the Democratic Party’s 2020 frontrunner is afraid of.
Unfortunately for Trump’s detractors, hundreds of documents have come to light which corroborate everything the president and his political allies believed about Biden’s corruption and the Democrats’ attempts to conspire with foreign sources to influence the 2016 election.
The Incriminating Paper Trail
As a result of the investigative efforts of The Hill’s John Solomon – along with a Politico investigation and other media probes – the Democrats’ Ukraine narrative is rapidly falling apart. Neither Politico nor The Hill are known, exactly, for dabbling in right-wing conspiracy theories.
All roads lead to Ukraine, it seems. Not only Biden’s blatant abuse of his vice presidency but the Democrats’ soliciting from Ukraine opposition research on Trump and his political associates. The very birth of the Trump-Russia hoax itself originated from Ukrainian officials who in 2016 disseminated the rumors that Trump was in league with Ukraine’s enemy, Russia.
At this point, it is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine are still foes and remain at war. Russia’s aim remains nothing less than the annexation of its neighbor. It is somewhat amusing, then, to think that Democrats for three years claimed that Trump was possibly an agent of Russia and now they are accusing him of “colluding” with Russia’s regional adversary.
Documents out of Ukraine reveal a number of things highly damaging to Democrats and, in all likelihood, fatal for Biden’s presidential aspirations. They show that, in 2016, the Democratic National Committee dispatched a contractor, Alexandra Chalupa, to Ukraine in search of compromising material on Trump’s then-campaign chairman, Paul Manafort. This has been confirmed by Ukraine’s Washington Embassy. The aim, apparently, was to spark a congressional investigation right in the middle of the presidential campaign – a development that would have undoubtedly sabotaged Trump’s presidential chances.
In 2016, certain Ukrainian government officials worked to boost Clinton’s presidential campaign by, among other things, openly casting doubt upon Trump’s suitability for the White House and suggesting that he was, in effect, a puppet of the Russian government.
Other documents and statements by Ukrainian officials show that Victor Shokin, the Ukrainian prosecutor who was fired after a threat from Biden to withhold over a billion dollars in loan guarantees to Ukraine, was indeed dismissed because he would not stand down his investigation into Burisma.
Burisma is the Ukrainian energy company that awarded a directorship to Biden’s son, Hunter, just weeks after then-President Barack Obama appointed his VP to be US point-man on Ukraine. Hunter Biden has no experience or qualifications for such a position, raising serious questions about why the company paid him some $50,000 a month.
Shokin stated in a deposition, under penalty of perjury, that he was told he was being fired because of his investigation into Burisma. Ukrainian officials and memos from Burisma’s American legal team indicate that everyone knew Shokin was fired over the Burisma investigation, contrary to what Biden Sr. has insisted.
There also exists documented evidence that congressional Democrats threatened Ukraine’s government, first to hand over information on Trump to then-special counsel Robert Mueller and, later, to not open a new investigation into the Bidens’ Ukrainian connections.
To deflect from all of this, Democrats engineered a phony story about Trump coercing Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky into providing damaging information on Biden, the president’s potential 2020 opponent. The story has been created with the help of an anonymous intelligence community source inventively described as a “whistleblower.”
Fatal Impeachment Blowback
While Democrats have launched an impeachment inquiry based upon the Trump-Ukraine allegation, they have put themselves in a precarious position. Impeachment is not something that can be rammed through Congress behind closed doors in the dark of night. At some point, the president’s political opponents will have to make impeachment proceedings official, giving Republicans – and the president’s legal counsel – the power to seek out exculpatory evidence and mount a defense.
At that point, the Democrats’ 2016 attempts to solicit the aid of a foreign power to influence the election – now corroborated by the Ukrainians – will become an unavoidable story. Biden’s influence-peddling will also be examined because a major part of Trump’s defense will be that his impeachment is, at least in part, a ploy to cover up the potentially illegal activities of the DNC and corruption within the Obama administration.
As if the Ukraine situation were not bad enough for Democrats, they may also be concerned about what Attorney General William Barr and his point prosecutor, John Durham, are uncovering in their investigation into the genesis of the Trump-Russia investigation.
The identity of the so-called whistleblower and of the White House sources he or she claims to have will become known, also, if articles of impeachment are introduced. It is simply inconceivable that a president could be impeached based upon second-hand information provided by an anonymous source.
The Ukrainian quagmire could well prove to be the Democrats’ undoing in 2020. Almost certainly, it means the end of Joe Biden’s nomination chances. Of all Trump’s achievements in the three years he has been in office – for better or worse, depending on one’s political point of view – his most significant may be that he has managed to drive the Democrats and the left-wing media so insane with hatred that they continue to shoot themselves in the foot, over and over again.
What Will the Next Banking Crisis Look Like?
The story is a familiar one: A large bank with a critical influence on the economy finds itself in a liquidity crunch and then its troubles soon drag down other big banks around the world with it……
Trump Considers Delisting Chinese Firms From US Markets: Source
Fed Loses Control of its Benchmark Interest: Repo Rates through the Roof!
Well, that didn’t take long! Four days ago, I stated the following in an article titled “Why are Bonds Going for Broke?“:
Central banks are losing control, and are admitting they don’t even understand what is happening.
US Economy Is ‘Now on the Upswing’ Despite the Fed and the Global Slump: Kudlow
Why US Gold and Silver Coin Sales are Irrelevant
Today I am going to explain why US gold and silver coin sales are irrelevant, though they are frequently reported by the US media as a weathervane for global gold and silver demand. Total 2018 sales of American Eagle gold coins sold by the U.S. Mint reached 245,500 ounces, the lowest on a year-over-year basis since 2007. Silver coin sales were 15.7 million ounces, also the lowest since 2007 on an annual basis, according to the U.S. Mint. Just 30,000 ounces of American Eagle platinum coins were sold during 2018. For those of you that follow me on social media, you know that I stated one should establish long positions in platinum after it breached the $865 an ounce mark, after which this price breakthrough happened and the price of platinum quickly soared to over $1,000 an ounce over the next six trading days. For the first seven months of 2019, the US mint reported that they sold 196,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins, 11.262 million ounces of American Eagle silver coins, and only 40k ozs of platinum coins. Extrapolating the gold and silver ounces to a full year of sales would yield 336,000 AuOzs and 19.3M AgOzs. Though both are considerable increases over 2018 figures, these amounts still represent less than 0.001 troy ounces of gold and less than 0.059 troy ounces of silver per US citizen. To this, I say who cares? Why? The Western mainstream media always fawns over sales of physical gold and silver in the United States, and especially misrepresents the physical gold and silver market during times in the past several years when US gold and silver coin sales were in precipitous decline to imply that the gold and silver coin market is collapsing. Even during times of collapsing US gold and silver coins, despite the significant attention these headlines always generate, I say, “Who cares?” because these Western generated news articles always completely ignore the sales of physical gold and silver that happen in the rest of the world among the 7.371 billion citizens that live outside of the United States of America.
“No One Comes Back From This Uninjured” – Fiat Currency Endgame Looms
No One Comes Back From This Uninjured. In one word, the devaluation is set to ESCALATE.
In fact, I term it Competitive Devaluation. There are several countries that will be the pioneers of it, but it will eventually reach the United States of America. In Europe and in Japan, we are closer to seeing it happening; in the next 2-5 years, you’ll hear about governments’ first official plans to do this,
They will NOT alert the media to notify the public to own gold and silver. They haven’t thus far (and they won’t going forward, either), and meanwhile, they’ve been accumulating them at the fastest pace in more than half a century.
The central banks want to buy gold, uninterrupted. Since they do not buy silver, the mania that will ensue in that niche market will be huge.
Not just gold and silver stand to gain from devaluation; companies that are able to increase prices and not lose consumers will be great winners as well. These are the world-dominators with pricing power, and I will profile my top-5 holdings for the Endgame Decade (2020-2029) in a Special Report due to be published by September 30th.
Real estate prices in metropolitan areas will also continue to rise; these are hard assets that are difficult to increase in supply, but my analysis is that of the three – world-class companies, precious metals, and real estate, silver will be the BEST PERFORMER.
Courtesy: U.S. Global Investors
Central banks are not able to inflate the real debt levels away. The most extreme case of this is Japan, whose central bank has done ALMOST everything under the sun to relieve the country of its deflationary spiral and has failed miserably.
We are a few years from that because many countries have still not reached the negative-yield world. Trump’s entire argument is that the FED doesn’t need to have ammunition come next recession, because interest rates are never going higher again, so just slam the bid, shove the thing to ZERO, or lower and help monetize bonds.
That’s Trump’s attitude, and as bizarre as it sounds, it is becoming our way of life. Under this fiat monetary system, we are never going back to normalized rates; the path is Competitive Devaluation.
Debts will be written off, savings will become extinct and it’s all because our political systems, demographics projection, and growth curves do not align at all.
In the short-term, September will be a month of relief. The Treasury will be funded, the debt ceiling will be raised and dollar liquidity will be increased by the FED; they will lower rates with 100% uncertainty. Any other announcement and the markets will dive by 15%-20%, like in December.
US Needs Alternatives to China’s Rare Earth Monopoly
Real Reason Behind Sluggish Business Investment Isn’t Trade War, Bank Economist Says