by Rick Ackerman on January 14, 2010 3:31 am GMT · 0 comments
The big boys have been trading body blows in gold, producing a lot of violence but no clear winner, at least not yet. We expect the buyers to prevail eventually, and we’d suggest that you take the odds if you find someone with enough misplaced confidence to bet the “Don’t” line. Still, we’d be the first to concede that sellers can pound bullion quotes mercilessly on a given day if the news is right. Remember in early December when they socked Comex futures for a $60 loss on “news” that the Government’s made-up unemployment number had dropped by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 10 percent? That was on a Friday, when fear and greed are typically running higher than on other weekdays. The damage was serious enough that bullion futures limped $50 lower before finding a bottom just before Christmas.
Yesterday, it looked like bears had the good guys on the ropes once again. Comex Gold was trading around $1118, down $40 from the previous day’s high, and looking even lower, to at least 1107.00. That last number is a Hidden Pivot target, and it was as clear and compelling as could be. Lo, buyers flooded into the market for no apparent reason and turned the tide, racking up a $27 gain into the close. We were mystified by this until we heard from our friend and longtime subscriber Jonathan Auerbach of Auerbach Grayson. Here’s his account, right from ringside:
Forget the Pundits
“For background, I have a COMEX seat and regularly trade gold. So this morning I want to share with you my morning gold notes over what I believe was a prodigious confrontation yesterday in the pits. Don’t waste your time this morning reading the pundits on where gold is going. Yesterday was an epic battle in the pits between good and evil, bulls and bears, bullies and sissies, and ultimately concerted efforts at manipulating markets. The various legions that attacked and counter-attacked over the day turned over 215,000 100 oz contracts — the equivalent of $25 billion.
“Yet, at the end of the day, despite gold being down at one point more than $30 from the earlier daily high, little technical damage occurred and we look forward to seeing final open interest on Friday. The sellers played the knee-jerk card suggested several days ago here — that the interests of certain parties for a successful [U.S. Treasury] auction would not be met if gold’s recent robust recovery continued. So get yourself a ringside seat for this morning’s thrilla to see if the sellers have the guts (they couldn’t have conviction) to face the buyers who keep getting up. Never forget the Auerbach Doctrine: You can only manipulate a market in the direction it wants to go.